Resurrectionists
Autopsies are an ugly business, but the insight gained is irreplaceable.
In the early days of the medical profession, grave robbing became a minor industry to provide cadavers for medical research. The body-acquiring professionals were known as resurrectionists.
Over the past year, Labour has conducted its autopsy behind closed doors, away from the nosy public. Last weekend, we saw the first display of what Labour has learned from its post-mortem at its annual conference in Christchurch.
Hipkins promised rail-enabled ferries, a full rebuild of the Dunedin hospital (reusing a policy from 2017), and denounced any New Zealand involvement in the Aukus military pact—all policies designed to function primarily as attacks on the current government.
Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds, anxious to rebuild Labour’s financial credibility, declared the National tax cuts as “economic vandalism,” contrasting with her promise to be a “pragmatic steward of the public purse.”
Edmonds took the criticism a step further, accusing her counterpart Nicola Willis of “austerity,” an accusation that sits awkwardly with the government’s love affair with budget deficits.
The autopsy is over; what comes next will show whether or not [Labour] have learned their lesson.
The policy elephant in the room was tax. Nothing was announced, but the party has voted to continue working on capital gains and wealth tax proposals. Taxes are never popular, but if Labour has a well-defined proposal on the table with plenty of time on their hands, the electorate may hold their nose and vote for it. By the government’s own numbers, they won’t run a budget surplus until at least 2027, so the economic case for higher taxes could be substantial.
Not all messaging has been within Labour’s control.
The first phase of the COVID-19 review released last week raised questions about Hipkins’ performance. Particular attention was paid to the vaccine mandates, which were “applied too broadly and remained in place for too long, which caused harm to individuals and families and contributed to loss of social capital.”
But Hipkins has been able to take the report on the chin; it’s hard to imagine the electorate will still be fixated on COVID-19 come 2026.
For the most part, key figures stuck to their lines, focusing on the “bread and butter” issues that survived Hipkins’ policy bonfire at the last election. Voters will disagree about whether Labour has the solutions, but at the very least, they are discussing the right problems.
Democrat political strategist and Bill Clinton’s campaign manager, James Carville, immortalised himself in political history with four simple words, “it’s the economy, stupid.” Politicians always face the temptation to focus on everything but the issues the voting public cares about. In the lead-up to the most recent U.S. election, Carville foresaw the result in a now infamous interview about the Democratic campaign.
Labour has passed through the messiest part of electoral death with minimal fallout. The autopsy is over; what comes next will show whether or not they have learned their lesson.
The Kiwi tendency to give governments a second term by default means that winning the next election is unlikely. But who knows—the resurrectionists may just rise again.
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Researcher Thomas Scrimgeour explains the thinking behind his column.