Britain is set to go to the polls. The result seems to have been a forgone conclusion ever since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the snap election, standing alone… in the rain… with a Labour anthem blaring in the background. Christopher Luxon would do well to pay attention.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is likely to be the United Kingdom’s next prime minister, ending 14 years of Tory rule. Starmer joined the Labour Party under the more radical Jeremy Corbyn and served in his shadow Cabinet. Since becoming leader, however, he has steered the party more towards the centre, presenting himself as the moderate and reasonable face of British left-wing politics. The tactic is working.

The wildly unpopular Conservatives are caught in between the devil and the deep blue sea.

Labour’s move to the centre puts the Tories in a double bind because Labour isn’t their only challenge. Nigel Farage, the champion of Brexit, has announced his return from America to lead Reform, a more hardline party on the British right.

The wildly unpopular Conservatives are caught in between the devil and the deep blue sea. I shall leave it to the reader to decide which is which.

Ultimately, nothing the Conservatives do will likely make a difference. They have been in power too long and overstayed their welcome. However, their campaign dilemma is instructive. Should they pivot to the centre and take the fight to Labour? Or go further to the right and shore up their base against Farage and Reform? Simply put, are most voters “in the middle” and want a politician who fits in there, or do they want a bold vision, regardless of what it is?

The recent budget was an attempt to please everyone and risks alienating everyone.

Closer to home, the National party is in the early stages of the same challenge. Balancing cantankerous coalition partners and the demure NZ electorate, it is hard to articulate National’s distinctive vision for New Zealand.

The recent budget was an attempt to please everyone and risks alienating everyone. The anti-tax crowd is mad that the tax cuts were smaller than promised. The fiscal responsibility hawks are unhappy that the deficits are larger than they were under Grant Robertson. The “tax and spend” left is fuming at any cuts to government services at all.

Christopher Luxon needs to cast a vision more comprehensive than “back on track,” and then bring the public along with him.

National can only dream of holding on to power for fourteen years, New Zealand has never been quite so reliably Tory as the UK. But should they manage an enduring reign, what would they actually want to achieve? Do they consider themselves moderates, or are they leading the country on a right-wing reformation? They can’t take both roads.

Christopher Luxon needs to cast a vision more comprehensive than “back on track,” and then bring the public along with him. The risk-averse temptation is to hold on to the “small target” strategy that won the election. But there will always be critics, without a clear plan the worry is that there won’t be any fans.

If they don’t choose between the devil and the deep blue sea, they might have to fight both.